Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 2.919186 3.492419 4.133355 4.900866 5.792604 6.793577 7.999701
2025-11-02 1.991395 2.688479 3.551836 4.690787 6.143694 7.924057 10.258312
2025-11-09 1.442345 2.159413 3.127596 4.511157 6.414526 8.914544 12.414690
2025-11-16 1.135582 1.859049 2.910558 4.517337 6.869532 10.137696 14.959309
2025-11-23 0.919152 1.631210 2.736545 4.528109 7.295873 11.330587 17.552194
2025-11-30 0.746729 1.429400 2.555867 4.482852 7.608089 12.363266 19.987706
2025-12-07 0.584732 1.206903 2.297249 4.262886 7.603130 12.896429 21.701143
2025-12-14 0.486669 1.075901 2.166181 4.225764 7.872552 13.860271 24.141336
2025-12-21 0.410858 0.969980 2.059226 4.208999 8.163407 14.871269 26.727140
2025-12-28 0.378647 0.945311 2.098261 4.458529 8.939220 16.745783 30.873044
2026-01-04 0.337214 0.891621 2.070696 4.575263 9.482402 18.262248 34.525723
2026-01-11 0.308000 0.859092 2.080037 4.762728 10.171730 20.084289 38.834049
2026-01-18 0.265948 0.788095 1.999307 4.762694 10.513620 21.333552 42.271913
2026-01-25 0.218331 0.691503 1.845413 4.587095 10.489176 21.907525 44.541952
2026-02-01 0.179569 0.607927 1.705700 4.420023 10.458746 22.460371 46.806896
2026-02-08 0.156526 0.562240 1.648408 4.428970 10.793654 23.739097 50.523478
2026-02-15 0.136921 0.521431 1.595805 4.440474 11.132837 25.049460 54.389388
2026-02-22 0.117826 0.476752 1.524689 4.396288 11.341823 26.109804 57.835237
2026-03-01 0.095517 0.414347 1.392915 4.180201 11.133875 26.288975 59.529170
2026-03-08 0.082522 0.380324 1.334550 4.143748 11.338333 27.347904 63.078273
2026-03-15 0.071918 0.351712 1.286483 4.127283 11.587510 28.519551 66.935912
2026-03-22 0.069207 0.353328 1.331513 4.372516 12.501946 31.212405 74.158792
2026-03-29 0.063517 0.341000 1.330246 4.487249 13.100970 33.245110 80.097030